This is politics, but unlike the video that Mark_australia drew our attention to, I don't want to mislead.
I'm in Gilmore, which is going to be the last electorate decided because the count is so close.
I'm sure that the donkey vote is the only reason that the count is close. The Lib candidate drew first spot on the ballot and that's the only reason he can win.
Yesterday I spent a couple of hours making a spreadsheet from the 2019 AEC vote tally.
I entered the first preference vote tally for all the candidates in all the electorates who drew first spot and then subtracted the average national first preference vote for their party to get an estimate of the effect size.
I chucked away all the microparties and independents because there is no decent national average to be had for parties that aren't standing in 90%+ of seats.
I totalled the votes for Libs, Nats and LNP because they are all branches of the Coalition to get their national average vote and I tossed out the 3 seats where Nats and Libs were splitting first preferences (they go up against each other when an MP retires and needs replacing)
That left 98 seats with an average advantage to being drawn in first spot of just under 2.5%
Dumb luck decides marginal seats sometimes
And there has been no wind for weeks
