The gap for races 3 and 4 was kept pretty much the same as the starting difference (until the last 2 legs of race 4). INEOS need to get their act together for the starts. If they can get the jump, and Luna Rossa are on the chase, it's going to be nail biting stuff!
Not a good scoreline for the Brits. But there doesn't seem to be much indication that the Italians have a faster boat. What are the chances that the 4-0 scoreline is just a matter of chance? Well if you're as old as me, were schooled in the days of the 3 Rs, studied combinations and permutations in year 12 maths, you can work it out. There's 16 ways of doing 4 races.
LLLL
LLLI
LLIL
LLII
LILL...... It's like counting in binary, although computers weren't invented back then.
LILI
LIIL
LIII
ILLL
ILLI
ILIL
ILII
IILL
IILI
IIIL
IIII
So there's 2 ways out of 16 that the scoreline of evenly matched contestants will be 4-0
There's 8 ways the scoreline will be 3-1
and 6 ways it will be 2 all.
A 50% chance of a 3-1 scoreline and only a 37.5% chance of an even scoreline for evenly matched contestants!
Anyway pushing what I recall of yr 12 out to the best of 13 I get Ineos's chance of winning from here as 45 in 512. 8.7%
The Poms are blaming it all on Sir Ben.
^^^
Fantastic Ian !
I didn't get to Year 12 but I can kinda understand what you've done there !
Select to expand quoteIan K said..
Not a good scoreline for the Brits. But there doesn't seem to be much indication that the Italians have a faster boat. What are the chances that the 4-0 scoreline is just a matter of chance? Well if you're as old as me, were schooled in the days of the 3 Rs, studied combinations and permutations in year 12 maths, you can work it out. There's 16 ways of doing 4 races.
LLLL
LLLI
LLIL
LLII
LILL...... It's like counting in binary, although computers weren't invented back then.
LILI
LIIL
LIII
ILLL
ILLI
ILIL
ILII
IILL
IILI
IIIL
IIII
So there's 2 ways out of 16 that the scoreline of evenly matched contestants will be 4-0
There's 8 ways the scoreline will be 3-1
and 6 ways it will be 2 all.
A 50% chance of a 3-1 scoreline and only a 37.5% chance of an even scoreline for evenly matched contestants!
Anyway pushing what I recall of yr 12 out to the best of 13 I get Ineos's chance of winning from here as 45 in 512. 8.7%
The Poms are blaming it all on Sir Ben.
Ian,
fantastic statistical analysis....it doesn't look too good for the Brits but what were the chances of USA Oracle coming back from 8-1 down to win the Cup 9-8 in 2013? As certain as I am that the sun will set in the west tomorrow afternoon, the score will either be 6-0, 5-1 or 4-2 to LRPP (unless racing is postponed)
The Poms are blaming it all on Sir Ben.
Ha especially the comment that Ben Ainslie was essentially just a passenger on Oracle USA and they would have won with or without him! The knives are out
That video has excellent analysis.
The next race was scheduled for Wednesday but has been delayed as Auckland went into level 3 lock down initially to 11.59pm Wednesday with a decision tomorrow on what will happen. The 3 community cases prompted a lot of testing with no more cases so far so hopefully we drop to level 2 which they can race but crowd limit etc.
The start is so critical and INOES need to get them nailed and really hope they can win some races and make the final a close series.
Great to see Ineos win.
The first race today they got a penalty but it looked like they got a great shift as well.
Great choice of course as course A area we have light NE but off eastern beach the SW from west coast sea breeze funnels down Tamaki river and race 2 wind speed of 12 knots better for Ineos.
Plus the SW is always a bit gusty where their tactician helps.
Tomorrow looking 10 - 15 knots NE so not as gusty or shifty.
Hopefully Inoes win more races so the Prada cup isn't over tomorrow.
We'll there it is......ITA v NZ to fight it out for the America's Cup. Hopefully it's a lot closer.
Select to expand quotesausage said..
We'll there it is......ITA v NZ to fight it out for the America's Cup. Hopefully it's a lot closer.
The America's Cup is a competition in building boats, finding loopholes and employing a good skipper (the skipper just in case you don't have a clear win in the boatshed) . It'd be nice if it finished as a close race on the water but that'd be missing the point. Don't miss the first race on 6th March.
SailGP by contrast is one design racing, all boats built by Core Composites NZ. Don't miss the first race in Bermuda 24th April.
So for the third cup in a row, it's Jimmy Vs ETNZ. One all to date, installment 3 coming up!
So for the third cup in a row, it's Jimmy Vs ETNZ. One all to date, installment 3 coming up!
First race tomorrow. Been a fascinating America's cup so far but the best is yet to come ie. the first leg of tomorrow's first race.
Has the cup already been won in the boatshed or will it be up to the sailors out on the water?
Starts at 4 pm. 11am West coast 2pm east coast.
Mozzie sails has been doing a good job keeping us entertained. They've no idea here of course.
Select to expand quoteIan K said..
First race tomorrow. Been a fascinating America's cup so far but the best is yet to come ie. the first leg of tomorrow's first race.
Has the cup already been won in the boatshed or will it be up to the sailors out on the water?
Starts at 4 pm. 11am West coast 2pm east coast.
Mozzie sails has been doing a good job keeping us entertained. They've no idea here of course.
So we have two calling it 7-0 & 7-2 to team nz and then mozzy calling 7-4 to Luna rossa. Hell, as long as it's close I'll be happy.
A shame to go for the penalty so aggressively at the beginning of the race. A bit of nerves and panic that ruined what could have been a good race.
Select to expand quoteIan K said..
First race tomorrow. Been a fascinating America's cup so far but the best is yet to come ie. the first leg of tomorrow's first race.
How are U watching live?
A VPN to NZ?
Cheers
AP
Select to expand quoteAquaPlow said..
How are U watching live?
A VPN to NZ?
Cheers
AP
You can't see it live? There's a special link for Australia.
www.americascup.com/en/live/country-locations
Select to expand quoteHarrow said..AquaPlow said..
How are U watching live?
A VPN to NZ?
Cheers
AP
You can't see it live? There's a special link for Australia.
www.americascup.com/en/live/country-locations
Harrow 
Thx VPN was a bit sucky speed wise when I last used and have to shut down and isolate all links to Google etc as upsets security for autolinks AP
2 a piece. Rare mistake from LR in Race 4 gifted it to TeamNZ but as everyone has noted, 99% chance you will win the race if you win the start. So much for one of Mozzy's mates predicting a 7-0 win to LR.
Nice to see it's balanced 2-2 and not an obvious whitewash, but would be good to see some lead swaps
Select to expand quotesausage said..
2 a piece. Rare mistake from LR in Race 4 gifted it to TeamNZ but as everyone has noted, 99% chance you will win the race if you win the start. So much for one of Mozzy's mates predicting a 7-0 win to LR.
Maybe we've all underestimated how much dirty air is left down wind? They don't go all that much slower in 8 knots of breeze vs 18 knots of breeze. But a parcel of air going 18 knots has 5 times as much energy in it. And although the boats are going upwind at 20 knots VMG the disturbed air is only clearing the course at 8 knots.
And it's similar going downwind. The following boat still gets dirty air. Back in the 12 metre days the following boat got the fresh air and could use it to catch up. Well in 18 knots of wind they would at least.
Maybe we can expect the likelihood of an overtake is higher in stronger wind.
Select to expand quoteIan K said..
And it's similar going downwind. The following boat still gets dirty air. Back in the 12 metre days the following boat got the fresh air and could use it to catch up. Well in 18 knots of wind they would at least.
Maybe we can expect the likelihood of an overtake is higher in stronger wind.
Yeah, remember those days of watching the 12 metres with the following boat spoiling the air of the leading boat, then pulling out to try and overtake while the spinnaker on the lead boat started to flap. It was nail-biting stuff all happening in slow motion so the tension was palpable. I'm missing that aspect now.
Sitting on a low knowledge base re-the rules...
When the course to use is chosen for the day what rules if any apply?
I would assume that if it was a cross wind drag up the course and back it would favour the NZ boat. 2nd race today went faster and sailed less distance.
Or is that angle not g8 for foiling these boats??
TIA
AP
Select to expand quotesausage said..
2 a piece. Rare mistake from LR in Race 4 gifted it to TeamNZ but as everyone has noted, 99% chance you will win the race if you win the start. So much for one of Mozzy's mates predicting a 7-0 win to LR.
The start is the best part of the race. An actual, tactical battle.
a more exciting, and perhaps just plain better format would be:
Start > upwind > downwind > 1 point
repeat 3 times.
Do they deliberately choose the course to make it directly upwind/downwind? If so, why? It's getting a little monotonous.
Yes racing upwind/downwind as more tactical options than just reaching.
In Bermuda they did reaching start which appealed to slalom races
Select to expand quoteHarrow said..
Do they deliberately choose the course to make it directly upwind/downwind? If so, why? It's getting a little monotonous.
Defender+challenger decide the type of course they wanted to race on in the early days of setting up rules for the Cup. Main reason is it has a very big impact on design and course size/selection.
