Hi all
3 mates of mine are bringing a Walker H28 from Melbourne to Hobart and planning to leave early next week
Any thoughts on the forecast and what route would you take
Regards Don
Don
You need a faster boat if it is next week.
There looks to be two distinct windows next week if you are coming down the east coast.
Sunday pm to Wednesday am with stop of a day at say Cape Portland or Waterhouse island on late Tuesday night as after the corner is crap for a day.
West coast go across the Stanley and wait then should have a good run all the way but will be a strong breeze but not crazy.
If you want a more detailed analysis let me know.
Select to expand quotecrustysailor said..
Hi Don,
out of interest, whats the name of the Walker H28?
Hi Crusty
She is Driftwood
Hayden's (HG02) old boat
A mate of mine from down here has bought her off Hayden
Regards Don
Select to expand quoteDonk107 said..
Hi all
3 mates of mine are bringing a Walker H28 from Melbourne to Hobart and planning to leave early next week
Any thoughts on the forecast and what route would you take
Regards Don
Definitely looking like West coast leaving late Monday early Tuesday.
Nothing really from Tuesday to Friday.
Need plenty of diesel
Select to expand quotelydia said..Donk107 said..
Hi all
3 mates of mine are bringing a Walker H28 from Melbourne to Hobart and planning to leave early next week
Any thoughts on the forecast and what route would you take
Regards Don
Definitely looking like West coast leaving late Monday early Tuesday.
Nothing really from Tuesday to Friday.
Need plenty of diesel
Hi Lydia
Thanks for your thoughts on this and i have passed the information on to my mates
How much can you trust the forecast and do you think that if the weather turns bad you are better being on the east coast of Tassie rather than the west coast
Regards Don
Don
What I am seeing there is nothing on the west coast from early Wednesday through Thursday and by late Thursday a building northerly well into Friday.
East coast has strong southerly on Tuesday and Wednesday so you won't get past the corner those days.
Just got to take a bit of a beating early on Tuesday as you leave Melbourne but it gets better very quickly.
Select to expand quotelydia said..
Don
What I am seeing there is nothing on the west coast from early Wednesday through Thursday and by late Thursday a building northerly well into Friday.
East coast has strong southerly on Tuesday and Wednesday so you won't get past the corner those days.
Just got to take a bit of a beating early on Tuesday as you leave Melbourne but it gets better very quickly.
Hi Lydia
Thanks for the explanation
Regards Don
cheers Don, glad to see the spirit of Driftwood goes on.
Good luck with the crossing, it's been blowing brown shorts over the past few days, and more coming apparently.
Select to expand quoteSandS said..
maybe wait until next feb
Hi Sands
I think that they are setting off on Tuesday
Regards Don
Select to expand quotecrustysailor said..
cheers Don, glad to see the spirit of Driftwood goes on.
Good luck with the crossing, it's been blowing brown shorts over the past few days, and more coming apparently.
Hi Crusty
She has been bought by a nice bloke who appreciates the work that Hayden has done to her and I look forward to finally seeing her in the flesh
The weather looks a bit dodgy at the moment but if the forecast is correct there are a few good days next week
Regards Don
Don
Significant change on the models this morning.
East coast is almost a dream run right up until very early Saturday when there is some SW stream but even that does not last long.
If they leave Tuesday am there is almost nothing in Banks Straits on Thursday and what follows is from the north.
Tell them to take extra diesel though.
Cheers
Good day out on the west coast today but!
Cape Sorrel wave buoy, about 10 to 14 m every 10 seconds
www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT65014.shtml
And Bruny AWS has not really been under 50 knots since very early this morning.
Select to expand quotelydia said..
Don
Significant change on the models this morning.
East coast is almost a dream run right up until very early Saturday when there is some SW stream but even that does not last long.
If they leave Tuesday am there is almost nothing in Banks Straits on Thursday and what follows is from the north.
Tell them to take extra diesel though.
Cheers
Window just gets better!
Select to expand quotelydia said..lydia said..
Don
Significant change on the models this morning.
East coast is almost a dream run right up until very early Saturday when there is some SW stream but even that does not last long.
If they leave Tuesday am there is almost nothing in Banks Straits on Thursday and what follows is from the north.
Tell them to take extra diesel though.
Cheers
Window just gets better!
Hi Lydia
It seems to be constantly changing
There are 3 Mormons on board so perhaps they are getting a bit of help from above
What forecast site are you looking at because if have been keeping an eye on Windy
Regards Don
Don
Not really, just better resolution as you get closer.
For free access go to the Access model and the GFS model on Weatherzone.com.au
There will be slight differences but are generally in agreement.
Meteye has pretty poor resolution generally.
I pay for access to other services.
Just checked out Windy which looks to be a pretty picture of the ECF or the GFS depending on which mode you choose so where the model differ is Friday morning on the upper east coast.
Which model generally has the better reliability, ECF or GFS? We are planning to leave Sydney either Friday or Saturday to go north. The ECF looks a much nicer picture.
Actually, that is great example of how the models differ and in particular how the GFS model usually overreacts to lows in the south west Pacific.
The Access model is more reliable if there any lows about as the GFS usually exaggerates the effect.
ECM will be close to the access model.
I would go with that.
Select to expand quotelydia said..
Don
Your mates getting away this morning?
Hi Lydia
They left at around 10am this morning and overnighting at Waratah Bay tonight
All went well today with the first sail of the boat since HG02 started working on her all those years ago
They are heading for Deal Island tomorrow
Regards Don
Select to expand quoteDonk107 said..lydia said..
Don
Your mates getting away this morning?
Hi Lydia
They left at around 10am this morning and overnighting at Waratah Bay tonight
All went well today with the first sail of the boat since HG02 started working on her all those years ago
They are heading for Deal Island tomorrow
Regards Don
Don....I seem to remember HG changing the rig from ketch to sloop. I can't remember if he altered the mast position to compensate,
but it must be handling OK.
Select to expand quotesamsturdy said..Donk107 said..lydia said..
Don
Your mates getting away this morning?
Hi Lydia
They left at around 10am this morning and overnighting at Waratah Bay tonight
All went well today with the first sail of the boat since HG02 started working on her all those years ago
They are heading for Deal Island tomorrow
Regards Don
Don....I seem to remember HG changing the rig from ketch to sloop. I can't remember if he altered the mast position to compensate,
but it must be handling OK.
Hi Sam
I was just speaking to them on the Sat phone and at the moment they are not far from Deal Island and they said they motored for a lot of today
The boat is going well under sail and motor and they are happy with her
Re the mast position Hayden removed the mizzen and left the main mast in its original position but they haven't said that it has caused any steering drama's
Most of the sailing has been reaching and running so far and the next couple of days the wind looks to be on the nose so I don't know how much sailing they will be doing
They may even decide to have a look around Deal and Flinder's on the way as there is no real hurry to get back
I will keep updating this thread with their progress
Regards Don
Select to expand quotelydia said..
Don
i did say take extra diesel
so am I on the money so far
pays to check
cheers
Hi Lydia
I will confirm they have the next time i am talking to them
How do you see the weather going in the next few days
On the sites i am looking at there is a few days of Southerly's and then the wind veers west and then north on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
Regards Don
Don
Nothing too bad from the south, a bit on Friday morning but by Friday night they will be motoring again.
Hope they have plenty of diesel.
Sat and sun are good days to get south.
The thing I like about BOM is that they continually monitor the output of all the models and compare it to data coming in from their observation stations. In effect, they choose the best model for you in any given set of conditions. Plus, of course, you have direct access to the observation data itself.
Cheers
Bristol
(In the UK enjoying the heatwave!)
Select to expand quoteBristolfashion said..
Cheers
Bristol
(In the UK enjoying the heatwave!)
"Football's coming home!" & so is Bristol, must be a great atmosphere over there at the moment,
cheers
Select to expand quoteBristolfashion said..
The thing I like about BOM is that they continually monitor the output of all the models and compare it to data coming in from their observation stations. In effect, they choose the best model for you in any given set of conditions. Plus, of course, you have direct access to the observation data itself.
Cheers
Bristol
(In the UK enjoying the heatwave!)
That is no longer the case.
Marine forecasts now usually produced without human intervention right down to the voice recordings.
Aviation has highest priority so all of the limited resources go there.
Marine if there is time except for Tasmania.
Remember BOM does hire science graduates anymore they hire maths graduates.
Select to expand quoteDonk107 said..lydia said..
Don
i did say take extra diesel
so am I on the money so far
pays to check
cheers
Hi Lydia
I will confirm they have the next time i am talking to them
How do you see the weather going in the next few days
On the sites i am looking at there is a few days of Southerly's and then the wind veers west and then north on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
Regards Don
Last time I went that way, we topped up the fuel tanks at Lady Barron.
Select to expand quoteDonk107 said..lydia said..
Don
i did say take extra diesel
so am I on the money so far
pays to check
cheers
Hi Lydia
I will confirm they have the next time i am talking to them
How do you see the weather going in the next few days
On the sites i am looking at there is a few days of Southerly's and then the wind veers west and then north on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
Regards Don
Don
Still very good
Little bit of southerly late Friday night on the East Coast but by day break it drops right out again.
Good then until Tuesday night.
