hope everyone stays safe in fnq. looks like a real nasty one on your doorstep. bom's latest has it at cat4 and possible intensifying as it moves towards the coast. will be interesting to watch.
longer term models are guessing for it to head back out into the coral sea and do a coast run as a low washing out near hervey bay aka burrum heads around Wednesday next week.
IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 1:54 pm EST on Thursday 10 April 2014
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Grenville to Port
Douglas, and inland to areas including Laura.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port Douglas to Innisfail,
and inland to areas including Kalinga, Palmerville, and Chillagoe.
At 1:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category 4, was estimated to be
420 kilometres northeast of Cooktown and
380 kilometres east northeast of Cape Melville, and
moving southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 4, is expected to move in a general
southwest direction towards the far north Queensland coast today and into
Friday, while possibly intensifying further.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita poses a significant threat to communities along the
far north Queensland coast and at this stage it is expected to approach the
coast between Cape Sidmouth and Cape Tribulation and make landfall late on
Friday as a SEVERE CATEGORY 4 TROPICAL CYCLONE with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS near
the core and GALES extending some distance from the landfall location.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS currently extend 80 kilometres out from the centre and may
develop between Cape Sidmouth and Cooktown from as early as Friday morning
before extending inland to Laura and further south to Cape Tribulation later in
the day.
GALES extend 190 kilometres out from the centre and may develop between Cape
Grenville and Cape Tribulation from as early as late tonight before possibly
extending further south to Innisfail and inland to Kalinga, Palmerville, Laura,
and Chillagoe during the day as the system moves closer to the coast and over
land.
Coastal residents between Cape Sidmouth and Cape Tribulation are specifically
warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast late
Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be
significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and
flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding
evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.
Very heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about
parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts late
today and persist into the weekend.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 12.4 degrees South 147.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 15 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 948 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Thursday 10 April.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/
it's insane how windy ita is at the core. currently gusting 160knots
IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cape Melville and Cooktown are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 21
Issued at 11:01 am EST on Friday 11 April 2014
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Sidmouth to Innisfail
including Cooktown, Port Douglas and Cairns, and extending inland to areas
including Kalinga, Palmerville, Mareeba and Chillagoe.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Innisfail to Cardwell, and
extending to adjacent inland areas.
The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Lockhart to Cape Sidmouth has been
CANCELLED.
At 11:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category 5, was estimated to be
190 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown and
345 kilometres north of Cairns, and
moving south southwest at 8 kilometres per hour.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 5, poses a serious threat to communities
along the far north Queensland coast. It is expected to move in a general
south-southwest direction and make landfall between Cape Melville and Cooktown
this evening or tonight as a CATEGORY 5 Tropical Cyclone with VERY DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS to 300 kilometres per hour near the core and GALES extending out to 200
kilometres from the centre.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with wind gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour may
develop between Cape Melville and Cooktown during this afternoon, extending
south to Cape Tribulation and possibly to Port Douglas tonight. GALES may
develop between Cape Sidmouth and Cape Tribulation late this morning or early
this afternoon before extending inland to Laura and Palmerville tonight. Gales
may extend south to Cairns and Innisfail and inland to Chillagoe overnight, and
possibly to Cardwell during Saturday.
The cyclone is expected to be weaken over land overnight, however, there
remains the possibility that Ita will track southwards close to the coast
tonight and maintain cyclone intensity for longer into Saturday. Should this
occur destructive winds with wind gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible
at Port Douglas and Cairns during Saturday.
Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation including Cooktown
are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the
coast later today. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will
be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents
and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in
areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect
their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions
regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.
Coastal residents between Cape Tribulation and Innisfail including Cairns
should monitor the situation in case the cyclone takes a more southerly track
than expected.
Very heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about
parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts today
and persist into the weekend.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita at 11:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.8 degrees South 145.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 15 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 931 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm EST Friday 11 April.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/
high seas bulletin
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0106 UTC 11/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0100 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 145.7E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [15 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [206 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 115 knots [215 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 160 knots [295 km/h]
Central Pressure: 931 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [15 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm [465 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 11/0700: 14.3S 145.4E: 020 [040]: 115 [215]: 930
+12: 11/1300: 14.9S 145.2E: 035 [065]: 115 [215]: 930
+18: 11/1900: 15.5S 145.0E: 045 [085]: 090 [165]: 959
+24: 12/0100: 16.1S 145.0E: 065 [120]: 050 [095]: 991
+36: 12/1300: 17.4S 145.5E: 080 [150]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 13/0100: 18.7S 146.8E: 100 [180]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 13/1300: 20.0S 148.9E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 14/0100: 21.3S 151.6E: 135 [255]: 030 [055]: 1000
+96: 15/0100: 23.8S 156.1E: 180 [335]: 030 [055]: 998
+120: 16/0100: : : :
REMARKS:
The Dvorak analysis of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on an eye pattern
with a black surround and an added 0.5 for a white surround [no width
considerations] and an off white eye, giving a DT of 6.0. MET and PAT both give
6.0. FT based on a 3-hour averaged DT of 6.0. CI has been maintained at 6.5.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is now within radar range and appears to be moving
in a south-southwesterly direction. The system is still exhibiting a well
defined pin-hole eye surrounded by a compact and symmetric convective core. The
current intensity analysis also appears to be consistent with ADT estimates.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita remains situated in an environment with 10-15 knots
of east-northeast vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures greater than
28 degrees celcius. CIMSS upper winds depict strong outflow to the south of the
system, which should allow Ita to maintain its current intensity through to
landfall.
Ita is being steered towards the south-southwest under the influence of a
mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea and over the Solomon
Islands. This mid-level ridge is being gradually eroded to the south due to an
approaching upper trough moving across eastern Australia. Latest computer model
guidance now shows stronger agreement in having a track with landfall along the
far north Queensland coast later today. The scenario of Ita being steered
southwards off the coast, and thus causing a major impact at Cairns and Port
Douglas is considered a low possibility, but one that cannot be completely ruled
out.
Ita should weaken reasonably rapidly over rough terrain on Saturday, but is
forecast to reemerge off the coast later on Sunday or Monday. Some of the
computer models redevelop the system as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough
and is steered to the southeast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
latest high seas.... the bom intensity prediction has Ita staying as a cat1 all the way to the northern tip of fraser island.
cmiss track map says the same outcome.
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0641 UTC 12/04/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 145.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [160 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 12/1200: 17.1S 145.9E: 030 [060]: 045 [085]: 991
+12: 12/1800: 17.9S 146.4E: 045 [080]: 045 [085]: 991
+18: 13/0000: 18.5S 147.0E: 055 [105]: 045 [085]: 990
+24: 13/0600: 19.3S 147.8E: 070 [130]: 045 [085]: 990
+36: 13/1800: 20.4S 150.1E: 090 [165]: 045 [085]: 990
+48: 14/0600: 22.2S 152.9E: 110 [200]: 045 [085]: 990
+60: 14/1800: 23.6S 155.5E: 130 [235]: 045 [085]: 988
+72: 15/0600: 24.9S 157.9E: 145 [270]: 045 [085]: 988
+96: 16/0600: : : :
+120: 17/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ita has remained over land for the past 15 hours, weakening
quickly for the first 9 hours but has maintained intensity over the last few
hours due to its proximity to the coast. Low Isles has periodically observed
gusts to 59 knots. Radar presentation has varied over recent hours, with an
apparent centre tracking close to or over the coast.
Given the trend in motion towards the southeast in recent hours the forecast
track has been revised to move to along the coast over the next 24 hours, and
subsequently the system has been held at category one intensity. Some guidance,
specifically the ECMWF, transitions the tropical cyclone into a hybrid system
with winds in excess of 45 knots. The current policy now accomodates this
outcome, noting that other global and regional scale models suggest a weaker
transition, with lighter winds and smaller rainfall totals.
The motion to the southeast is being driven by the approach of a mid and upper
level trough. Heavy rain is likely on the western flank of the system through
the interaction period, and may impact between Cardwell and Proserpine. Heavy
rain through the Cairns region should gradually ease over the next 12 to 24
hours.
In the 3 to 5 day period, the hybrid system is expected to weaken as the
interaction with the mid to upper level trough decays.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
