Wondering what caused the sudden 25-30knot SE on Saturday arvo at Manly just after the start of our first race at RQYS? Windy.com was showing some sort of gradient just to the east of Brisbane but none of the models I saw predicted 25-30 knot winds for yesterday arvo:
That southerly change was forecast for Northern NSW. It was on the bom forecast, and the marine wind maps and seabreeze. I think a trough came through.
You're right that it wasn't forecast for QLD but it was a lot stronger than predicted in NSW and probably went further north extending to Brisbane.
My limited observations regarding the forecasts currently are that in La Nina conditions the northerlys are a lot weaker than forecast (today a perfect example). The troughs come across Australia with too much moisture and there is a lot of clouds so less land heat, and water is warmer (less thermal gradient).
For some reason in a La Nina the SE'ers seem to be stronger than forecast. Especially the changes like yesterday.
Opposite in El Nino. Cranking NE'ers (While NSW and Vic burn) . Weak SE season in QLD.
Just some basic observations that have been well tested over the last 3 years of La Nina! If this one holds true, then Jan/Feb/Mar/April should have a lot of SE winds in QLD. As long as the rain holds off a bit....
Select to expand quotebatstonem said..
That southerly change was forecast for Northern NSW. It was on the bom forecast, and the marine wind maps and seabreeze. I think a trough came through.
You're right that it wasn't forecast for QLD but it was a lot stronger than predicted in NSW and probably went further north extending to Brisbane.
My limited observations regarding the forecasts currently are that in La Nina conditions the northerlys are a lot weaker than forecast (today a perfect example). The troughs come across Australia with too much moisture and there is a lot of clouds so less land heat, and water is warmer (less thermal gradient).
For some reason in a La Nina the SE'ers seem to be stronger than forecast. Especially the changes like yesterday.
Opposite in El Nino. Cranking NE'ers (While NSW and Vic burn) . Weak SE season in QLD.
Just some basic observations that have been well tested over the last 3 years of La Nina! If this one holds true, then Jan/Feb/Mar/April should have a lot of SE winds in QLD. As long as the rain holds off a bit....
Thanks mate, interesting. I've also noticed the NE'ers haven't been as strong or consistent here with the LaNina.
Strong squall hit Bells ck area. Layed a few big boats over n Capsized this 40ft launch.
