Predicting crash and burn on a sailboard

Predicting Crash & Burn on a Sailboard.

The likelihood of crash and burn while sailboarding can be accurately assessed by solving the Crash and Burn formula. The formula is made by calculating the interplay of 5 measurable variables. Each variable plays a part in whether the sailboarder has a good day or goes home early.
The 5 variables are wind (w), chop (c), skill (s), board suitability (b) and most importantly photo factor (p).
Each variable is assigned a value from 1-10 based on how close the variable is the zone of critical failure (ZOCF). A value of 1 means the likelihood of crash and burn is low while a value of 10 indicates the zone of critical failure has been exceeded and crash and burn is very likely.
So, the likelihood of crash and burn can be predicted if the crash and burn value is close to 100% or any of the 5 standard variable is in the zone of critical failure. The ZOCF can also be referred to as having a stack.
Once the crash and burn formula equals 100% or the ZOCF has been reached by any variable it can be recognised by any or all of the following; the person is crying, swearing or laughing hysterically, the number of items in the water including the person are greater than 2, the person is in the water and is not executing a water start, the person is swimming or there is some distance between the person and the rig.
The formula for Crash and Burn % = 2 x [W + C + S + P + B]
The value of each variable is determined by..W = wind speed express in knots x 0.3
C = height of chop in centimetres divided by 10
S = skill of sailboarder from 1 - 10 with 1 being highly skilled and 10 being a raw beginner. A highly skilled expert can sail well in all conditions. He or she is a virtuoso performer and has been seen sailing while using a beach umbrella as a sail and pool noodles duct taped to his/her feet. Besides being a raw beginner a 10 can also be recognised by having loud music blasting from his van, having Gastra stickers on the rear window and a beach babe in a bikini sitting by the shore.
P = 1 if there are no photographers or GoPro being used, 5 if either is present, 10 if you are trying to be impressive for GoPro or photographer.
B = suitability of board, 1 if board and conditions are well matched. 10 if you are trying to sail a 1980 model Dufour Wing in a 25 NE'er at Coal Point.
Let's see how the formula works in this scenario...
Wind: 20 knots x 0.3 or W = 6
Chop: 30 cms divided by 10 or C= 3
Skill: Middle of the road, good basic skills. S = 5
Photographer hiding behind tree. P = 5
Board reasonable for conditions. B = 5

Crash and Burn % = 2 x [ 6 + 3 + 5 + 5 + 5] = 48% (A good day)

Let's introduce the Butterfly Effect and see how a minor change can tip the scales. The photographer has moved from behind the tree. P now = 10 because the sailboarder is trying to be impressive.

Crash and Burn % =2 x [ 6 + 3 + 5 + 10 + 5]
= 58% Still a low predictor yet one variable (P) has reached 10 or the Zone of Critical Failure. As ZOCF has been reached then a stack has occurred and any of the above indicators, most likely the number of items in the water is greater than 2, is observed. A bad day or a good day if you are the photographer.

Disclaimer: This formula has been calculated using measurable predictors and does not take into account variables such as brain capacity (BC). The inclusion of that data would greatly increase the reliability of the Crash & Burn .Yet obtaining such data would require years of lengthy study to assess parameters like, IQ, emotional intelligence, childhood history, bumps on the head, liquid intake, substances ingested, ego or whether or not the beach babe is now sunbathing topless. BC could be the focus of another paper.

Anonymous author

Inspired by seeing this crash of mine last week..

Look at that style, perfect form..

I had my go pro on so here's the video..

Doesn't sound like much fun! Apparently mine was mainly caused by too large a fin.
Anonymous writer doesn't sail so I think he did a pretty good job..

Yep you deFINately got lifted there. My 57Vmax loves to do that over 18kts wind. Such a beast to hold down when pushed too far.

That is the BEST photo you have ever posted!