From the BOM:
Issued on Tuesday 17 June 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months has primed the climate system for an El Ni?o in 2014. However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, warming has levelled off in recent weeks. Positive Southern Oscillation Index values and large areas of warm water in the western Pacific and off northwestern Australia are also counter to typical El Ni?o development.
Despite recent observations and some easing in the model outlooks, climate models surveyed by the Bureau still indicate El Ni?o is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Ni?o ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Ni?o developing in 2014.
For Australia, El Ni?o is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas and above-average daytime temperatures over southern parts of the continent.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter and spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Ni?o and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
A bit if www research suggests that the last el nino was in '98.. Can anyone remember what the wind was like during the summer of '98?
What was the summer of 98 like?
Welll....
I got my first real 6-string......... but then.......
I discovered the Gaastra GTX was nice. But, I gave up slalom stuff shortly thereafter, and continued wavesailing.
The mega pro international comp at Esperance was skunked, but Josh Stone ripped.
Linkin Park was the go, I thought Limp Bizkit had them for a while, but we all came back to the former after the 'bizkit crew made us too angry and the Big Day Out just looked like a meth lab with flashing lights and more security.
Besides, Grinspoon was more local. I discovered Tokyo Ghetto Pussy had a bassline about 45Hz that could set off car alarms :)
Those who embraced the Y2K bug shi!te made lots of money, so didn't care about the wind. They bought heaps of gear and sailed exotic locations, so El Nino was but a brief thought for them......
(Nebbs, Laurie etc 
)
Many of us thought the Combat Wave was dead and bought the NR or Core - now both are replaced by, you guessed it, the Combat. Likewise with boards. Everybody had Delta thruster with red plastic fins. We later ascertained 3 fins was crap (apparently) so we all went twinsers and they were sh!te (apparently) so we all went singles again. Now we have everything BUT singles. I reckon Marty was right.
Aerotech brought out dumb stuff like a 5.25m wavesail, as if the 0.25 is not just 10mm of downhaul FFS!
Ezzy brought out their 2010 design 
Starboard was getting into the wide stuff, but also coined the term "FreeSeX" for FreeStyleEXtreme. I thought $2100 for 'free'sex was a bit much, but then realised that is just a pro per fortnight for a year ...... so I cut back on one to fund the other...
Kiting was just starting. Back then it was 'core - it was windsurfers on 2 line powerhouses that killed peeps. D1cks with something to prove stayed paddling on 5'10" thrusters at Scarbs and those who really ripped would windsurf. Oh how it has changed, the ingress of d1cks into windsports.....
Jesters kicked off with pies that were really waffles or toasties or jaffles or whatever the fark they were. Died out just as quick - cos a beef and pork pie with eggs and chives was just fkn weird. Those in the know just got a Mrs Macs and went for a surf.
Maccas did a triple cheeseburger with bacon - sik! (for heart surgeons). They cancelled that (sad, sad day for Oztraylia), and then did a burger that had pork schnitzel with coleslaw. That was bloody tops and renewed our love for the multinational.
2018 is coming.............. will be a 3 batten sail on a 5 fin waveboard, with Jesters beer n bacon toastie on the way, with kiters relegated to the history books.
Oh yeah and it will be 25kn southerlies every days for 5 mths of summer. Wooottt!
Ok mark let's just simplify that a bit. Just think 98 Sydney to Hobart and Sydney most damaging hailstorm ever with baseball size hail that smashed lots of tile roofs.
I think you need to look more towards the Indian Ocean dipole for WA weather. granted the enso has an effect but in general terms el nino / la nina events are an east coast thing relating to the pacific ocean.
west coast is the indian ocean dipole. the IOD can be effected depending on the enso phase so I guess that's why the wa guys have noted effects from el nino events.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/IOD-what.shtml
Good news for Vic sailors is great seabreezes, bad news is rigging on dirt as all the grass dies.
