Cyclone Alfred

Best of luck to those who will be affected by the cyclone. Here's hoping you, your families, and of course your boats, emerge unscathed.

Cheers, Graeme

Thanks cammd to give some good news of Manly boat harbour.
I am now in France and my boat is berthed at East Coast marina in Manly and I was a little bit worried about what had happened during the passage of Alfred !
cheers, Patrick

So essentially , got a direct hit at Bribie Island.
So a few observations.
Not much of a cyclone if at all. Never got to 50 knots but it blew from a good 30 hours.
There was never a huge pressure gradient.
so maybe misleading even calling it one as opposed to a mid latitude low.
Performance of all the public models as complete crap and the longer it went on the worse they got.
If you had been a sea relying on them would have been life endangering.
The BOM should just shut up and go home.
emergency services relying on BOM where misled.
Too many people looking at pretty screens inside of looking out the window at the wind direction.
Clearly never heard of Buys Ballot and his rule. Very accurate as things went on.

scholarlypublications.universiteitleiden.nl/access/item%3A2868034/download

Excellent article here btw.

One observation was the very clear difference in wind strength in the different quadrants and just because it passes does mean things get better.
Bribie got more from the north on late Saturday night than from the south the night/morning before which was to be expected but not by the BOM apparently.

I had put a 30kg CQR and 80 metres of chain out to the north west across the canal on the Thursday afternoon as a stern anchor to take some load and in anticipation for the northerly.

My next door neighbour thought it was overkill for the northerly but then as he was driving the local VMR vessel had to go and do an assist to protect the bridge in the height of the northerly that night.

So what do you takeaway?

Models may not have the resolution you would need if at sea trying to get safer, remembering that the difference between a safer quadrant and the full blast may only be 20 miles (4 hours)
Your own observations will be best for you so trust your barometer and Buy Ballot and make your own tracking charts.
This applies for high latitude lows as well but models will most likely be more accurate.
Get to the safe side as quickly as possible.
Lastly, if your storm tactic is running downwind you might want to be very sure which aside you are on.
The sea state off Cape Moreton in the northerly would have something to see. A few days of 10m seas from the east then 50 knots from the north from 12 hours. So not even wind against swell but worse, side on.



I have some video from 0400 hrs Saturday but can't post it.
L out.