Following a great thread Dave started last year of predictions....
Who is following ENSO this year?
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
We have had a very good winter for surf in WA. Lots of storm activity with the negative IOD. The signs aren't great for summer seabreezes though:
Select to expand quote[b]Strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues to dominate[/b]
A persistent and strong negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), combined with a La Niña-like pattern of warm seas around northern Australia, continue to be the major drivers of Australian climate.
Temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean continue to be below average, but remain El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral. Most international climate models surveyed indicate the Pacific is likely to remain at ENSO neutral levels through to the end of 2016, though one international model suggests a La Niña late in the year is possible.
Some indications of atmospheric coupling have emerged in recent weeks. August was the first month to show persistent below average cloud around the Date Line (typical of La Niña), and this pattern has continued during September. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded La Niña thresholds for the past two weeks. Hence the ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH.
Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures to Australia's north and east, and the broader southwest Pacific Ocean, strengthened over the past fortnight and may be contributing to some La Niña-like impacts. Likewise, a very strong negative IOD persists in the Indian Ocean and is also increasing the likelihood of wet conditions over Australia. Models indicate the IOD will return to neutral levels by the end of spring. Spring in eastern Australia is typically wetter than average during a negative IOD (and La Niña).
Was anyone else watching channel seven news least night?
They had an Professor from the UWA, an aboriginal elder speaking about how in there culture they have six seasons not four. He went on to explain that they are not dictated by a date but influenced by what is happening in nature, bird movements, flowers etc. I was watching it think how **** TV is when he pointed out a certain flower hadn't blossomed but was in flower, this apparently indicated we were in for a very hot October,. my ears picked up,.. hot = wind!!!
So I cant wait to see what happens,. if it turns into a cracker of an October I'll be watching more NITV:)
Negative Indian Ocean temps off our coast should produce a bigger temperature difference with the land as it heats up resulting in stronger sea breezes.
Well that's my theory anyway!
I remember reading an earlier update that said the Sea surface temps for SW WA this summer, were predicted to be cooler than usual (as it was this winter in metro). If this is the case we should get pretty consistent seabreezes due to the temperature differentiation between sea and land (I think.)
It also went to say that the NW WA SST were going to be warmer than usual which would contribute to a wet summer up there so hopefully that warm water stays up north otherwise we'll get another "troughy" summer.
Fingers crossed.
Select to expand quoteDave Whettingsteel said...
Negative Indian Ocean temps off our coast should produce a bigger temperature difference with the land as it heats up resulting in stronger sea breezes.
Well that's my theory anyway!
Hah, beat me to it!
Select to expand quoteDJMWA said..Dave Whettingsteel said...
Negative Indian Ocean temps off our coast should produce a bigger temperature difference with the land as it heats up resulting in stronger sea breezes.
Well that's my theory anyway!
Hah, beat me to it!
Haha, great minds think alike!
Apparently the negative IOD in July was the biggest number ever recorded in 50 years of observations. Gotta be good for something. Cold as, in Gero today. Can just about smell the penguins in Antarctica on the wind.
Select to expand quoteDJMWA said..
I remember reading an earlier update that said the Sea surface temps for SW WA this summer, were predicted to be cooler than usual (as it was this winter in metro). If this is the case we should get pretty consistent seabreezes due to the temperature differentiation between sea and land (I think.)
It also went to say that the NW WA SST were going to be warmer than usual which would contribute to a wet summer up there so hopefully that warm water stays up north otherwise we'll get another "troughy" summer.
Fingers crossed.
My understanding is warmer waters in NW lead to a stronger Leeuwin current, hence warmer waters in the SW.
Select to expand quoteDave Whettingsteel said..
Negative Indian Ocean temps off our coast should produce a bigger temperature difference with the land as it heats up resulting in stronger sea breezes.
Well that's my theory anyway!
Negative IOD means warmer water off our coast though.
Select to expand quotebene313 said...Dave Whettingsteel said..
Negative Indian Ocean temps off our coast should produce a bigger temperature difference with the land as it heats up resulting in stronger sea breezes.
Well that's my theory anyway!
Negative IOD means warmer water off our coast though.
I must've got my wires crossed then, maybe too many beers whilst googling. I might be getting confused again but is that pic suggesting that the negative IOD only affects Spring?
Edit: BOM also saying the negative IOD is weakening, maybe a good thing then?
A friend on an AIMS boat said they are getting the hottest water ever while monitoring reefs off Darwin so I guess that would indicate a very negative IOD.
There seems to be contradictory info on the impacts of the IOD.
"The IOD involves an aperiodic oscillation of sea-surface temperatures, between "positive", "neutral" and "negative" phases. A positive phase sees greater-than-average sea-surface temperatures and greater precipitation in the western Indian Ocean region, with a corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean—which tends to cause droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia. The negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions, with warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, and cooler and drier conditions in the west."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_Dipole
EDIT: Duuhhhh. Just realised my mistake. WA is East Indian Ocean, not West.
Cottesloe water temp is 17.2 and 1.4 degree below mean for This day of the year according to surf forecast. Hoping this is good prognostic factor for perth seabreeze.
The best wind seasons have followed a proper wet winter,
We're always blessed with great winds here,
It's in the air you can feel it
Select to expand quoteDave Whettingsteel said..
EDIT: Duuhhhh. Just realised my mistake. WA is East Indian Ocean, not West.
Select to expand quoteThomasU said..
Cottesloe water temp is 17.2 and 1.4 degree below mean for This day of the year according to surf forecast. Hoping this is good prognostic factor for perth seabreeze.
Brrrr it's been cold in the water this winter!! I've been swimming and surfing throughout the last few months. If it's warm up north it's not affecting metro or SW beaches... yet.Select to expand quoteDJMWA said..I might be getting confused again but is that pic suggesting that the negative IOD only affects Spring?
Yeah I'm not sure actually. It says it doesn't form in summer but I wonder if there is carry-over from winter.
Gee wizz, it's been a long cold winter this one. I'm hoping the water temps are nice and low as a result making for a good first half season at least.
I agree with cauncy regarding the proper winters making a good dry wind season following. Fingers crossed.
Warm waters round our parts are not welcome. So you can go back to where you came from haha 
Well noting scientific but thebwater temp is noticeably cooler up here in Exmouth than previous years same time. But hey maybe it's going to be winter, bam summer, forget spring.
Thanks for rubbing it in that you're in Exmouth Eppo. We're getting smashed by a cold front here 
Sorry man. Had a surf this morning with the little tacker (wasn't great but hey), winds in, watch the GF then hit hit as the swell and period rise
But Tuesday on is looking sh1thouse 
But on topic again, water was again today noticeably cold up here. If you go back 2000-2003 ish I seem to remember 25 knots plus every bloody day (all empirical of course ). Interesting to look at the winter data for comparison.
How do you think this season has tracked so far compared to prior years?
Updated yesterday: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/Select to expand quote
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole ends, while central tropical Pacific Ocean warms
The Indian Ocean Dipole has returned to neutral levels, after being in a negative phase since May. The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral.
In the tropical Pacific, most indicators of ENSO are well within neutral bounds. In the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed once again, further dampening chances of La Niña. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been negative since late October (La Niña values are typically positive) but remains neutral. Trade winds are currently close to average. Only cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show some La Niña-like characteristics.
Climate models predict the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain cooler than average, but in the ENSO-neutral range, through until the end of the 2016–17 summer. Only one of the eight models surveyed indicates La Niña for the summer months. A La Niña developing this late in the calendar year has only occurred once since 1980.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned to neutral levels as the monsoon trough transitions to the southern hemisphere. This shift changes the wind patterns over the tropical Indian Ocean, breaking down the typical IOD circulation. The strong negative IOD event helped drive Australia's wettest May–September period in 117 years of record. The July IOD value was equal-strongest for at least 50 years.
I reckon it's been a better November than last year but I could be mistaken as I was away for a week or so for that time last year (and all of December.). I can confidently say that January sucked big time. No wind or swell, I got heaps of fishing done though so not a total waste.
Will be home for most of December this year so finger crossed.
