Select to expand quoteEl Niño persists as positive IOD emerges in a warm Indian Ocean
The tropical Pacific ocean and atmosphere are reinforcing each other, maintaining a strong El Niño that is likely to persist into early 2016. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are more than 2 °C above average, exceeding El Niño thresholds by well over 1 °C, and at levels not seen since the 1997–98 event.
More:
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
For those in the West, we are affected by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD):http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/about_IOD.shtml
The above relates positive IOD with a warmer than usual Indian Ocean. However that section of colder water near Indonesia and at the top of Australia is what affects us. My understanding is that along our coast, currents from the north bring that colder east Indian Ocean water, thus adding to the seabreeze affect. (Please correct me if I am wrong)
Select to expand quoteprea said..
Is this why there are no northerlys on the gold coast
perhaps...... if anything, I would have thought there would be MORE chance of northerly seabreezes, as the water temp is likely to stay cooler for longer...
then again, I haven't really noticed much difference so far about this season than last year. The Northerly's we have had are still being knocked out by 3pm once the storm clouds roll over from the cooling effect.
Hopefully the season is just dryer and more likely to continue into Jan/Feb, rather than the southerly garbage we had last season....
^ El Nino is usually associated with stronger seabreezes. Although I'm not sure about how this works over east.
The water under Indonesia, thus in the Indian Ocean swept towards Indonesia by the trades, isn't that cold this year. In non El Nino years the water is much colder in our windy season.
The trades have been weak and it seems that didn't bring the cold water. The wind started late this season. For example, at the spot where I ride at Tabuhan Island in East Java we normally start to have solid trade winds of around 20 knots in May / June. The season stops around end of October. This year the winds kicked in in June / July, but we still had non windy days in July and August.
I was expecting the season to start late and end late, but it seems it has already stopped..
Normally in September the trade winds turn more south. That hasn't happened yet this year. Let's hope the winds will turn south soon because that means some spots in Eastern Indonesia will go off :)
Last year there were at least 10 northerlys days in August, and at least 15 days in September
so far this year 2 northerlys in August and 2 or 3 northerlys in September
But there are plenty of southerlys, a lot more than the normal for this time of year, they dont normally start until December.
Is this El Nino 
Select to expand quoteprea said...
Last year there were at least 10 northerlys days in August, and at least 15 days in September
so far this year 2 northerlys in August and 2 or 3 northerlys in September
But there are plenty of southerlys, a lot more than the normal for this time of year, they dont normally start until December.
Is this El Nino
If we didnt have the SE we would have more NE. At my place we have already had more NE winds then last year
East coast - cool sea and hot dry land = big differential in airmass potential :-)
That equation usually means great sea breezes!!
From my experience here in WA.
When it was La nina the seabreeze struggles to get near 20 knots all season and the seabreeze dies by 7pm.
When neutral the seabreezes are averaging 20 knots and blows till 8-9
Full blown El nino is going to be friggin awesome.. bring it on :)
Super El nino have kicked in here in the naki. Westerlies as far as the eye can see.
www.swellmap.co.nz/surfing/new-zealand/fitzroy-beach
I'm looking foward to at least 3 months of insane wind!
Select to expand quotesimonp said..
It has been rather windy lately, it might pay to secure the water tank.
classic.
