Forums > Kitesurfing General

BOM predictive modeling

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Created by buzingfridge > 9 months ago, 4 Jan 2014
buzingfridge
WA, 147 posts
4 Jan 2014 12:48AM
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Is it just me or are do we seem to be back to a more traditional summer wind pattern.
Not sure about other states but in Perth I reckon we are bucking the bom wind modeling.

I always used to say if it was 26 to 34 deg we would always get a raging south wester at least 22 25knts. 35 to 38 no seabreeze.
The previous 3 years have been 5hite with swinging northerlies and these wired ass southerlies and strange water temps.
So far this season things look more normal ??

My theory is the modeling is trending towards those changes we have seen the last few years hence why forward predictions seem to be out of wack and showing marginal to no seabreeze in some cases.

Kazan
QLD, 699 posts
5 Jan 2014 8:15AM
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It's called Global Warming caused by man made pollutants in the air. I am sure you would have heard of it?

buzingfridge
WA, 147 posts
5 Jan 2014 11:46AM
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Great input. ...... Thanks ?

Global warming = y2k without a expiry.
If embraced = jobs, new industry through out technology, services and education.
Keeps 1st world ecconimics Infront of emerging global economies.

Not a skeptic, I just don't like being emotionally blind folded by something that appears to be revolving around the almighty $$$ but let's not start that debate.

My point is it appears the bom modeling is not taking into account enough factors to correctly predict wind patterns Just a thought.

Dl33ta
TAS, 462 posts
5 Jan 2014 3:01PM
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I've never seen BOM accurately predict a local area effect sea breeze. They might get the direction right but never the speed, not around where I am anyway. I saw a news artical the other day about the heats ability to knock out a sea breeze or thermal low though which I found surprising. Pretty strange considering that you would think it would actually just increase the intensity of the low given the greater temperature differential.

The only documented reason I've seen for a sea breeze killer is if the current wind directionis opposite to the sea beeze direction, i.e. It's been blowing southerly and your sea breeze usually comes from the north.

au_rick
WA, 752 posts
5 Jan 2014 4:06PM
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Global warming ? It's caused by all the whales eating all the plankton (did you know that plankton converts CO2 back to Oxygen ?)

Jedibrad
NSW, 527 posts
5 Jan 2014 8:08PM
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Global warming ? It's caused by volcanos the amount of CO2 they spew forth is crazy just ask the dinosaurs

MOWIT
67 posts
5 Jan 2014 5:18PM
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Select to expand quote
Jedibrad said..

Global warming ? It's caused by volcanos the amount of CO2 they spew forth is crazy just ask the dinosaurs


and caused by cows burping & f*rting and politicians in election years and when Parliament sits

craggers
WA, 475 posts
5 Jan 2014 7:04PM
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Seabreeze being affected by hot air.

Common forum symptoms.

Freddofrog
WA, 522 posts
6 Jan 2014 8:01AM
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My theory, increased water temps offshore reducing the temp differential b/w sea and land reducing the sea breeze effect. That's also why we are seeing more northern species fish being caught this far south.



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"BOM predictive modeling" started by buzingfridge