Hi,
This is my first post and i'm pretty new to kitesurfing. I bought my gear and had lessons last year but i'm hoping to really get into it this season. I live in Australind and have been looking at the weather predictions for Bunbury on seabreeze. When i compare the bunbury predictions with the actual weather results from the BOM website there seems to be a pretty large discrepancy - of about 10 knots. With the actual wind being a lot lower than what is predicted.
Can anyone tell me if these green arrows are pretty accurate or not ?
I'm hoping to get the kite wet this weekend.
Cheers,
John.
Wind predictions and actuals are always a bit different ! - AND we always knock off 4 knots off the Local BOM 1/2 hourly readings at east Sale in Gippsland in Victoria to give us a 'real' wind speed at out local !!
So any prediction is exactly that - a prediction!! Use that to guide your kite session selection and use the (best) local wind readings to calibrate your predictided sites!! - and previous experience to sya if the session is likely to be a goer !! Sad we are talking at the bottom end not the - when is it too windy to head out!!
At east Sale the anemometer is 10m up a mast - so it reads differently to ground level ( although given our kite site on 25 M lines I am scratching my head???)
So is the prediction wrong ? - almost always!! but its within a bulls roar to tell you if its worth knocking off work and heading for the beach!! - but with 2 kites at least to cover the inconcise wind forecasts!!
Yes they are accurate enough.
If you're a fisherman, boatie, surfer, you'd be same the exact opposite. I've been on both sides of the coin.
You just need to learn to adjust it to your local kiting area.
Thanks for the reply guys. I think the seabreeze site gives a wind prediction that is 10 knots below the actual wind. I just went out on my own and i think i may need to get used to self launching 
I find Seabreeze good for the long term forecast - to see what's coming.
Also I align with the difference sources I have, nothing is ever 100% correct all of the time - over time you get used to what the forecasts is and what actually happens at your local (Apart from Rosebud in Vic - I've been caught out at this spot more times that I care to imagine)
I have an app called PredictWind - it uses great wind modeling and it's developed for sailors, you can even set up your local spots so you're not locked into a specific location and guessing from there. I find this one is most accurate 12hrs before and may change last minute to align with the other models. It costs around $20 for the year subscription.
I use BOM, Seabreeze, PredictWind - Most of the sources will aggregate from these anyhow.
BOM and Seabreeze tend to over predict - I believe the BOM does due to covering their behind just in case a boatie see's 5kn and it's actually 25kn on the water and gets into trouble.
Best bet is to speak to some locals and find out what they use for their forecasting, sometimes you need to do some math/deduction as you say.
A one arm, peg leg blind man with tinnitus in both ears and a 3 legged guide dog could do a better forecast .....
But hey I'm just here for the entertainment 
hey John8oy
I bet you have been enjoying these last couple of dayz down in Bunbury.
What kites do you fly, will keep an eye out for you when I am down there next.
Select to expand quoteairush said..
hey John8oy
I bet you have been enjoying these last couple of dayz down in Bunbury.
What kites do you fly, will keep an eye out for you when I am down there next.
Hey Airush thanks for the reply,
I drove to all the kitesurfing spots that i know of in Australind - the estuary & the cut, and also into Bunbury back beach and didn't see a single kite. I didn't want to venture out by myself cause i'm thinking "maybe the weather is unsuitable cause if it was there'd b heaps of people out"
Normally theres people out at the estuary so i know if its good weather.
I did go out by myself on Thursday but i had problems self launching. The wind today and yesterday was very strong and was blowing onshore so i don't know if thats an issue or not ??
Anyways - yeh i look forward to meeting up sometime !
Mate I personally think that the weather prediction on seabreeze is almost always very accurate with some small adjustments to suit your local area just like freddofrog said.
I live in busselton, I look at the bunbury forecast and it is almost exactly what we get here. just always more north in it (winter).
As for wind readings, I was told that the wind is measured behind a shed hidden in some trees or something like that in bunbury ???? Hence the reason it is always 10 knots less than Busselton or what you might get with an anonometer.
