Weather Forecast Day 2 - Airlie Beach Race Week
'Sunrise Day 2 - Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach Race Week 2008'
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Weather Forecast - Issued by Kenn Batt at 0630hr - For Saturday 16th August 2008. 2008 Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach Race Week.
Nil Warnings current.
Synoptic Discussion:
Oh to be at Airlie! The good old Trade wind flow to continue today.
A large 1034hPa high centred south of the Bight, extends a firm ridge over Queensland.
Observations:
At 0630hr surface winds over the Airlie Beach area were out of the SW averaging around 5-8kn (land breeze) and the temperature was around 8deg. At Hamilton Island the wind was SSE at 13kn, gusting 16kt (temp 17C, pressure 1018hPa) indicative of the general synoptic flow.
Forecast Winds for middle of Pioneer Bay
1000: 160-140deg 10kn gust 14kn
Noon: 150-130deg 12kn gust 17kn
1400: 140-120deg 14kn gust 19kn
1600: 140-120deg 14kn gust 19kn
1800: 150-130deg 10kn gust 15kn
Note 1: Wind direction range in degrees MAGNETIC, first speed is 10 min average and last speed is the maximum one minute gust during the 10min period leading up to the forecast hour. All at a height of 10m.
Note 2: The trend in both wind direction and speed is one of the most important aspects of any marine forecast. Forecast values will differ from observed values from time to time for a number of reasons including yacht's position within race area, compass calibration, instrument calibration, land mass in wind flow, etc
REMARKS:Wind is expected to be about 10 to 15deg more Left very close to land during afternoon (sea breeze effect). Winds about 3 kn stronger and more right in Whitsunday Channel area (due channeling). Wind lighter in lee of any landmass and a little stronger due to convergence around headlands.
Natural oscillations today around 15 to 25 deg away from effects of topography, tending around 20 to 50 deg closer to the effects of any land mass.
Other Possibilities
50% chance that wind direction reaches 20degrees more left than forecast later this afternoon.
40% chance that wind speed will be 2-3 knots stronger than forecast above.
Weather
Dry and mostly sunny. Take plenty of sunscreen and warm clothes.
Maximum land temperature at Airlie Beach: 21-22 degrees Sea Temp: 21 degrees
Wind Waves: 0.5 to 1.2metres Less near land, more when wind wave opposes tidal current.
(Wave heights quoted are Significant wave heights).
Current: A big ebb today. Be very careful.
Remember: Tide floods to the south and ebbs to the north in the Whitsundays.
Tide: High of 2.51m at 0942hr and low of 0.47m at 1524hr.
Outlook
Saturday: Dry. S/SE winds 10/15 knots, reaching 15/20 knots offshore.
Sunday: Dry. S/SE winds 10/15 knots, reaching 15/20 knots offshore.
by Kenn Batt 
Devonport, TAS
