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9:17 PM Wed 11 Feb 2009 GMT
Predictions, albeit based on some slightly shaky weather and performance variables, still conclude that when the corrected times - net of redress compensation - are computed there could be just hours between the effervescent Roxy Chick Davies and Guillemot, and third could go either way.
Certainly a St. Valentine's Day finish for Sam Davies' would fit so perfectly with the Roxy spirit, but for the British skipper who has a home in South Brittany and has gained a huge fan base in France this race, her weekend, into Monday may yet prove to be a nervous countdown until the arrival of Marc Guillemot.
The one consistent theme is that the finish will be slow for all four of the boats closest to the finish in Les Sables d'Olonne, but trying to work out polar speed predictions for Guillemot's Safran which has no keel and is effectively hobbled by having to sail with two reefs in the mainsail is not easy.
Weather routing suggests the leaders will sail north of the latitude of Les Sables d'Olonne to escape the worst of the light weather. But even the Roxy skipper seemed to think she might yet be able to find a more direct route and is unclear as to whether light winds really mean just that, or no wind.
As she said in this morning's radio broadcast in five knots of breeze she can still move forward at six-seven knots of boat speed, and in fact that might yet be he most potent conditions in comparison to the handicapped Safran.
While the British skipper admitted again today that she has a huge amount of respect and admiration for what Guillemot has been through this race, and the way he is fighting to the end, Davies - who cut her solo racing teeth on the Mini Transat and then the French Figaro circuit - has third step on the podium as her goal and is pushing now at a rate more in keeping with the final miles of a solo Figaro stage than the end of the most gruelling round the world race. Her race experience tells her that, in the end, minutes may count.
When she spoke on the radio broadcast this morning she was making 10-11 knots and keeping Roxy powered up as much as she could. This afternoon she was still topping 12 knots in the moderate conditions safe in the knowledge that her boat has proven reliable for more than 24,000 miles then the odds should be on her side to push for the last 419 miles that she has to sail.
Meteo France predict that the wind shut down will arrive for the leaders from Thursday lunch time.
Contrast her focused mind set with that of her rival, living on the edge. The slow finish may be in his favour in terms of nursing his damaged Safran across the line, but he said today that he has been sleeping with the sheet of the mainsail in his hand in order that he may release it the instant there is any risk of heeling too far.
And what of the finish weekend itself? The high pressure may elevate the stress levels for the remaining skippers but it promises to offer fine conditions for the thousands who are expected to turn out and welcome Davies and Guillemot across the finish line and down the famous canal.
Already Les Sables d'Olonne is bathed in warm, almost spring like sunshine, the school holidays are in full swing in Paris and it could be a big weekend for Les Sables d'Olonne, perhaps even as big as when the winner Desjoyeaux arrived.
In France it would appear that Davies is on course to be the emerging star of this race, outlasting or set to finish ahead of the other six British skippers who started on 9 November, Mike Golding, Jonny Malbon and Alex Thomson who were all forced to retire and Brian Thompson, Dee Caffari and Steve White who are still racing.
Brian Thompson, GBR, (Bahrain Team Pindar) has been consistently quicker than Dee Caffari, GBR, (Aviva) over the last 24 hours. In the fast reaching conditions Caffari has done her best to preserve what she has left of her mainsail, while to all intents and purposes Thompson appears to be reveling in the conditions knowing he is now less than 1000 miles from home and needs to make the most of what is likely to be his last blast on Bahrain Team Pindar in this epic race. The British duo have had a front to contend with coming through from their west giving them fast sailing in S'ly winds but with bad seas hitting them from the NW not difficult conditions to go quick in, and in the medium term they face the same slow down from tomorrow lunch time. Thompson is 110 miles ahead of Caffari late this afternoon.
While those at the front of the fleet are experiencing quiet conditions, it is very different at the back: Norbert Sedlacek, AUT, (Nauticsport-Kapsch) is being battered once again by another low-pressure system that has moved across from Brazil. The Austrian is facing northerly winds in excess of 45 knots with some very heavy seas today and he will have to wait until dark for the wind to veer SE'ly. Unfortunately, this will not make conditions any easier, as the seas are already nasty with waves reaching eight metres in height.
Sedlacek reported this morning that he had been hand steering for much of the last low and his autopilot problems are ongoing.
A similar weather situation faces Rapha?l Dinelli (Fondation Oc?an Vital), but he will be experiencing this around half a day later. The thundery low will pass over him during the night with more than 55 knots of wind forecast, which he will have to ride out.
The picture is not quite as dramatic for Rich Wilson (Great American III), Steve White (Toe in the Water) and Arnaud Boissi?res (Ak?na V?randas). The American, making good headway in the easterly trade winds, which will gradually veer south-easterly, has around 800 miles left to sail to reach the Equator. It is here that he will encounter the Doldrums, which have recently regained their strength. The oldest competitor in the race will be hoping the situation will change again by the time he gets there in around three days from now. As for Steve White, GBR, (Toe in the Water) the trade winds in the Northern Hemisphere are still offering him steady easterlies, although he too will shortly be passing into the area of calms, which trapped Arnaud Boissi?res (Akena V?randas).
White is now 580 miles behind 'Cali' and has made up nearly 300 miles this month so far, and 130 miles since Monday morning.
The French skipper is trying to make headway north to get away from this area, but there are some worries about the final days of his race, as he does not have much fuel left and is having to make drastic energy savings.
The British drop out average at 43 per cent is below the race rate of 63 per cent.
Marc Guillemot (Safran):'I've got twelve knots of wind and still have that residual swell from the last low. When the wind eases off as it did this morning, it gets tricky with the sails flapping and the swell remaining to roll the boat around. It's now dull and overcast. Early in the night, there were clear skies with a great moon, but now it's very cloudy and dark. It was a bit hairy during the night as I had three alerts. I have to keep the sheet on my wrist and had to ease it off very quickly and rush outside, as it was getting a bit scary. In the coming hours, I'll have to assume the boat is safe or take down the gennaker to get some rest, which would be a bit of a disaster. I'm still focusing on performance, as the third place is far from certain and I would really regret it if I didn't fight to keep it. Since dawn, I've had my eyes on the barometer, and when I saw it dropping off, I got ready to gybe. That took at least 35 minutes to make sure everything was safe with the ballast with 12 knots of wind. But just as I gybed, there were only seven knots of wind, so I'm going to have to plan ahead in the future. I should be finishing on Monday. Downwind, I know where I am but upwind, I'm going to find it harder and it's not easy to work out my performance. For the moment, I still think it will be Monday, but we'll see. I know Sam is expected on Saturday morning., so it's going to be close. Now it's a little less violent with the swell, but during the night the pilot couldn't cope and the boat accidentally gybed. So that was a very stressful moment. The time to turn off the autopilot and grab the helm.'
Sam Davies (Roxy):'Everything is fine on Roxy with some sunshine and I'm sailing under spinnaker. The wind has just eased off and at the moment I'm doing about 10-11 knots. Tomorrow, it's looking very complicated. For today I hope to stick with the wind for as long as possible. I'm trying to get my head around the weather charts, as they are all over the place in the Bay of Biscay. I was trying to tell myself last night that it's fine now as I've already down this several times before. It's just a short leg in the Figaro, but after three months at sea it's a bit different. I don't think I will need to go all the way up to Ushant. I'm merely trying to make my way east, staying on the tack, which offers the best speed, so for the moment that means the starboard tack, so that is pushing me back up. Maybe I'll head back to about the level of my home (Southern Brittany). All of my routing programmes give a projected finish on Saturday morning. But I think that could change depending on whether there is any wind at all in the calm zones. With 5 knots of wind, I can still make 6-7 knots of boat speed. So that can dramatically change the ETA. I still hope it will be Saturday morning so I can finish for St. Valentine's Day. I still feel fine, but it gets harder to hoist the sails, so I feel I have drained my reserves. The closer I get to les Sables, the more energy I will find. I still have lot of food left, although my cheese is beginning to smell. I still have enough chocolate and sweets for a few more days and I have plenty of fuel left too. But I would really like to bite into an apple and eat some fresh fruit and vegetables. I think my body needs some vitamins from fresh fruit.
'Marco is sailing really well. I'm ashamed that during the night he was sailing faster than me and doesn't even have a keel. I sent him an e-mail telling him I have a lot of respect for him, as in his place without a keel, I think I would have flipped. It's incredible what he's doing and I sincerely hope he'll finish.'
Dee Caffari, GBR, Aviva:'The sailing should be enjoyable. We have 30 to 35 knots of wind and a blue sky with white fluffy clouds. The boat speeds are fast down the waves and we are closing the miles to the finish. However on Aviva the stress levels are high.
'40 knots last night through the mainsail didn't go down too well and another section of fibres parted. I am now holding my breath as we surf along for another 24 hours before the wind eases. Once we reach the light airs I can hoist the mainsail and hopefully leave it. Maybe the high pressure is a blessing in disguise as I am not sure another depression would be any good for the mainsail or my anxiety levels.
'Unfortunately, to avoid any further damage with the fibres getting caught, I am going to have to wait until much lighter winds before hoisting so I may lose some more miles to Pindar but we all have to float through the high pressure to the finish, so all is not lost.'
Vendee Globe - 18:30hrs GMT. Rankings, Wednesday 11 February 2009(FRA unless stated)
1 . Michel Desjoyeaux (Foncia) finished after 84 days 3 hours, 9 minutes
2 . Armel Le Cl?ac'h (Brit Air) finished after 89 days 9 hours 39 minutes
3 . Sam Davies (Roxy) at 419 miles to finish
4 . Marc Guillemot (Safran) at 589 miles to finish
5 . Brian Thompson (Bahrain Team Pindar) 939 miles to finish
6 . Dee Caffari (Aviva) at 1056 miles to finish
7 . Arnaud Boissi?res (Akena V?randas) at 1974 miles to finish
8 . Steve White (Toe in the Water) 2551 miles to finish
9 . Rich Wilson (Great American III) at 4110 miles to finish
10 . Rapha?l Dinelli (Fondation Oc?an Vital) at 5309 miles to finish
11 . Norbert Sedlacek (Nauticsport - Kapsch) at 5682 miles to finish
RDG . Vincent Riou (PRB). 3rd equal. 30 boats started
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