A Kiwi invasion is imminent, according to a population expert who says a New Zealand election later this year, coupled with benefits and tax breaks to lure skilled labour our way, will trigger a migration explosion.

Speaking at the Australian Population Association's 14th biennial conference in Alice Springs, Professor Richard Bedford from the University of Waikato said there was an average of 800 New Zealanders a week leaving for Australia.

'With an election coming up in New Zealand later this year, inevitably there will be a migration issue. There has been one for every election since the early 1990s,' he said.

'The migration issue for 2008, in my view, without doubt, will be the exodus to Australia.'

Prof Bedford's comments follow the release in June of New Zealand's latest migration statistics which found that in the year to May 44,749 people left permanently for Australia.

This compared to 37,713 people for the same period the year before.

Prof Bedford today said the move was not always permanent and, over time, the figures tended to even out.

'The New Zealand flow to Australia is very significant, and it's a big component of population change,' he said.

However, the professor added, it was 'terribly dangerous' to rely on monthly figures without considering them within a broader historical context.

'Migration is highly volatile,' he said.

'Coming back to New Zealand from Australia there were 96,000 (people) in the 1980s and 94,000 (people) in the early 2000s.

'Going to Australia from New Zealand there was 200,000 (people) in the early eighties, and 225,000 (people) in the early 2000s.'

There were many reasons for the Kiwi shift, he said, including the search for better jobs, more money and a better lifestyle.

'There is a bit of a debate about the gains moving to Australia,' he said.

'There's no doubt that for a Maori truck driver if you want to go off to an isolated community in Australia you will get far better wages than anywhere in New Zealand.'

But middle-income professionals won't earn much more and many elected to eventually return home, Prof Bedford said.

Other factors which could inspire Kiwis to migrate are the strong NZ dollar, comparatively low wages and a substantial clutch of benefits offered by the Australian government.

According to professional company director and former Comalco managing director Kerry McDonald, New Zealand's low productivity is a 'national disaster'.

New Zealand now rated as a middle-income country and its economic, social and environmental sustainability was at risk, he said.

Labour productivity growth has been at or below benchmark countries since 1980.

'New Zealanders work among the longest hours in the OECD, but for comparatively meagre rewards, because of their low productivity,' said McDonald.

Low productivity undermined competitiveness and limited incomes and the capacity to do things in other areas, such as defence, environmental protection, health and education.

'New Zealand's increase in tax and regulation since 2000 strongly correlates with poor productivity,' he said.

by Jeni Bone

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