6:14 AM Sat 27 Dec 2008 GMT
It seems there is nothing better than a strong northeasterly forecast to raise smiles across most of the crews heading south to Hobart; not only does it bode well for the comfort stakes but for everyone bar the heavier upwind stayers there seems to be a belief that a handicap win might just be in their grasp.
From 98 feet down to 40 feet the message seemed to be the same when skippers were asked yesterday about their prospects for the race.
However, at the 'other weather briefing' held yesterday on the seawall of the Ruschcutters Bay Park just before race start, a coterie of skippers from the 40 and 50 footers were looking well pleased as meteorologist Roger 'Clouds' Badham put his money on the weather favouring their bracket for a handicap win.
But what a difference a day makes.
Today the smiles on the faces of some of the skippers may be turning down at the edges; while for others the grins will be growing wider.
The philosophical Bruce Taylor, skipper of the 40 foot Chutzpah may be one of the former. After a promising start Chutzpah is now lying 35th overall and 7th in IRC Division 2. and while there's a long way to go yet, Taylor may be calling on some of his stoic qualities that have seen him record 27 finishes in this race, with an overall handicap win still eluding him.
'Two years in a row, you've just got to pinch yourself 'were the words that Robert Hick used to describe this year's favourable race forecast to Chutzpah's skipper Bruce Taylor at the Melbourne Race Briefing, earlier this week.
While the forecast for this year looked promising, Taylor could be forgiven for wanting to erase the memory of last year's forecast; it promised much and then took it away mere hours from Hobart as Chutzpah and a number of other handicap hopefuls ran into windless 'holes' at Tasman Island
But Taylor seemed genuinely relaxed on the dock before yesterdays' start. 'Yes this forecast is good for us again, besides the omens are good too; every time we have a rough delivery trip we do well and this year we got hammered on the way to Sydney'.
Given the mostly downwind forecast, Taylor's observations on the current status of running sails and techniques may prove telling over the next twenty four hours, 'downwind sails are still in a state of flux as sailmakers and crews get to grips with how to get the best out of assymetrical sails with the new breed of smaller boats. We've had one of the new 'rotating' kites made for us this year as they help get us deeper under pressure'
Certainly if the westerlies in Bass Strait begin to gain in strength on Saturday and Sunday as forecast, weight on the rail or better still a canting keel and/or water ballast will be must haves.
Hence perhaps why Steve McConaghy, the tactician aboard Ray Roberts 'Quantum Racing' was confidently acknowledging the growing number of punters projecting Quantum Racing into the handicap winner's circle yesterday morning
'At our length in these conditions the canting keel really comes into its own. We've got a much wider bracket for the helmsman to use comfortably downwind than a conventional keeler; perhaps twenty degrees more that we can use to steer onto waves or to absorb extra pressure without losing control' said McConaghy yesterday.
Quantum is showing signs of rewarding the punters' confidence late this afternoon, lying 3rd overall on IRC.
As the race unfolds it seems that Clouds' odds may be shortening, with the prospect that those 40 and 50 footers best set up for two sail reaching may stand to do well as the breeze turns progressively more westerly in the next twenty four hours.
In reality, two sail reaching is something of a misnomer these days as a staysail inside a jib top or Code 0 is de rigeur on most modern racing yachts.
'Krakatoa' skipper Rod Skellet was bullish about the prospect of reaching conditions, 'with 750 litres of water ballast and ten crew it's the equivalent of 20 crew on the rail' said Skellet, which perhaps explains how the crew could even contemplate setting the massive combination of a Code 0 and a Heavy Number One off the bow of the beamy 40 footer.
Krakatoa lies fourth overall in the PHS divisions this afternoon.
Aboard the 11.3 metre Ker designed 'Tow Truck' the crew were also looking forward to a fast run south and the prospect of reaching across Bass Strait as the new westerly breeze kicks in. 'This boat loves reaching' said Brett Philby yesterday 'I thinks there's a good chance the big boats will get south 'too fast' and run out of breeze; ideally if we can be coming into Bass Strait slightly wide as the new pressure builds from the west we can set up for a fast reach into the Tasman Coast. We'd expect to set a jib top and staysail, maybe even a main and small jib if the pressure's up and Tow Truck goes well in either combination.
Those could be prophetic words with Tow Truck leading IRC Division 3 this afternoon, clearly enjoying the conditions.
Nor is age proving any impediment to getting south quickly, with the 43 year old American lightweight classic Ragtime lying 7th overall on handicap and embarrassing a few of her much lighter contemporaries, by leading IRC Division 2
Even some of those with little chance of a handicap win seemed to be smiling at yesterday's forecast. Twenty time Hobart veteran Jim Holley, skipper of the old IOR Farr 40 Aurora eschewed any suggestion that a NE wind was bad news for him 'people often say to me that a forecast like this mustn't suit us; but at my age the weather that suits us certainly doesn't suit me!'
Whether reaching or running, the gamble as ever with any breeze with the word west in its name is how wide to take the Tasman Coast; too close and the lee shore effect can see those offshore pass you by; too wide and if the wind shifts into the southwest there can be no more demoralising prospect than tacking for Tasman Island, while everyone else inshore runs down the rhumbline.
It may yet prove, however, that those who have gone to the trouble of practicing and setting up sail combinations for the rarely rehearsed art of three sail reaching will arrive in Constitution Dock with the biggest smiles.
by Crosbie Lorimer
Click on thumbnails to enlarge and find more photos:
     |
Lord Howe Island Windy Point, NSW
Foiling - Components (Wings,Masts,etc)
Kitesurfing - Kites
Stand Up Paddle - Wave & Cruising Boards