'Guba near Papua New Guinea' .

While Australia's Cyclone Season, which officially finished on April 30, produced only one significant Cyclone, Guba, and the Atlantic also experienced a particularly light year for hurricanes, sailors in the both hemispheres are being warned that a strong hurricane season is forecast this year.

The season started only this week, June 01, in the northern hemisphere, and already there's a named Tropical Storm. 'Arthur' has weakened to a tropical depression yesterday (Sunday) after soaking the Yucatan Peninsula, but still threatened to cause dangerous flooding and mudslides in Mexico, Belize and Guatemala.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami warned that remnants of the first named storm of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season could still cause potential life-threatening floods and mudslides.

In the meantime, The Daily Green reports that forecasters from government, business and academic institutions are unanimous: An above-average hurricane season is expected.

The forecast from the government's Climate Prediction Center says it's likely that 2008 will be an active year for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean. For gamblers, there's a 65% probability that we'll see an above-average storm season, a 25% chance it will be average and just 10% that it will be below average.

What does that mean? It means there's a good chance there'll be 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

Average is 11 named storms including six hurricanes, two of them major storms.

While the hurricane season officially began June 01, storms typically reach a peak in late summer.

This year, a lingering La Ni?a (cool pattern) in the Southern Pacific, warmth in the tropical Atlantic, and the strong-phase of a multidecadal storm activity cycle are expected to be driving forces behind an active storm year.

Specifically, for Australian waters, Tropical Storm Riskestimates that there is a 47% pobability that Australian-region tropical storm numbers in 2008/9 will be above average (more than 12 tropical storms), a 40% likelihood they will be near normal (between 9 and 12 tropical storms) and only a 13% chance they will be below normal (less than 9 tropical storms).

Even if it's only nine for the year, that sounds like a lot of tropical storms to weather in the next season!

by Dan Shapely/Sail-World

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