9:09 PM Thu 25 Dec 2008 GMT
Using course optimisation and weather software supplied by PredictWind.comand ExpeditionSail-World has run a Volvo 70 down the Rolex Sydney to Hobart race track, and a race record would seem to be looking more likely.
Although there is no standard Volvo 70 entered in the ocean racing classic, the design is believed to give a similar performance to the supermaxis - given that the supermaxis are 30ft longer, however the Volvo 70 design has been optimized for running and reaching conditions. The performance data used from the Volvo70 has proven to be an accurate predictor of performance in the current Volvo Race. Matt Allen's Ichi Ban, was the slowest of the Volvo 70's from the last Round the World race,sailing as Brunel but she has since been optimised, but cannot hold out the two 30 metre super maxis, Bob Oatley's Wild Oats XI and Grant Wharington's Skandia if they are sunfish or other damage free.
So given that the times we are quoting are conservative.
The interesting features of the optimized tracks are the distance the yachts will have to head offshore to take advantage of the wind systems moving down the New South Wales coast and in the Bass Strait and Tasman Island area.
Sail-World has run course optimisations using two weather feeds CMC from Canada and GFC from USA.
The Canadian feed shows the VOR70 picking up a nice patch of strong breeze in the late afternoon off the New South Wales Coast, this builds into a stronger and more extensive breeze area, but also moves offshore. The VOR70 rides this wind wave to make a fast trip down the NSW coast and into Bass Strait. However she then has to break away and reach in light winds to make landfall at Tasman Island.
Even so, and given the way in which these feeds do change closer to the actual time, it seems that the CMC feed does give the best chance of a fast course to Hobart. Likely to impact on the projection will be the area of strong winds from a NW direction approaching to the west of Hobart, and this will probably have an effect on the transition and landfall at Tasman Light.
The course optimisation produced by the CFC (Canada) feed shows a more radical track and faster time for the 2008 Rolex Sydney to Hobart Race.
The course optimisation produced by the GFS (USA) feed shows a more conservative track and slower time for the 2008 Rolex Sydney to Hobart Race. The essential difference between the two feeds is that the GFS feed sees the area of strong wind heading earlier through the race area, and with the VOR70 not really being able to take full advantage of the stronger winds.
 | On the GFS feed, 40 hours after the race start the VOR70 has closed on the Tasmanian coast and is working her way to Tasman Light. The dominant feature is the area of strong NW winds seen advancing from the west (left) of Tasmania. - PredictWind-ExpeditionClick Here to view large photo |
by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World
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Hamilton Island, QLD
