PredictWind: Light winds likely to stall Sydney Hobart record

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7:56 PM Fri 26 Dec 2008 GMT

'PredictWind - Tasmania and Bass Strait at 1100hrs 27 December 2008 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race' PredictWind.com

Light winds in the Bass Strait area seem likely to preclude any chance of the race record being broken in the 2008 Rolex Sydney Hobart race.

With race leaders Skandia and Wild Oats entering the Bass Starit area at 0500hrs this morning, the PredictWind feeds show that light winds of 5-10knots from various directions are predicted for the area at 1100hrs this morning when the competitors should be about halfway across one of the most notorious pieces of water in the world.

The charts for the Eden, SE Australian coats area tell a similar story, as do the five day forecasts for Tasman Light on the final approaches to Hobart.

For yachts further back in the fleet a major change to the southwest is expected later in the race with a substantial increase strength providing more normal Sydney Hobart race conditions.

In simple terms while the winds are in the right direction for a race record, they are not sufficiently strong and yacht speeds will probably drop, rather than increase. Currently they are behind race record pace.

The set of graphs for the 27 December 2008 off Eden and Tasman Island (purple lines) show that the winds are lighter on the Tasmanian coast, and also that while winds are increasing on the Australian coast the yachts are moving into a lighter air zone as they move across Bass Strait. A look at the top of page image shows a snapshot of the the wind strength and direction at 1100hrs across the immediate race area.

PredictWind Strength - 1 day Eden 27 December 2008 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race - PredictWind.com

PredictWind Direction - 1 day Eden 27 December 2008 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race - PredictWind.com

This set of charts shows the five day prognosis as the fleet approaches Tasman Light the last major rounding point before the fleet head directly for Hobart. These show winds flicking between 5-10kts in strength from a NW to NE direction.

From early Sunday afternoon a SW change will come through with winds building to 25knots initially. The PredictWind prognosis is produced on the basis of two different weather feeds and as can be seen in these charts, both feeds are very close in their prediction and therefore there is a high probability of accuracy in both strength and timing as to the wind strength and change in direction.

PredictWind Strength - 5 day Tasman Island 27 December 2008 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race - PredictWind.com

PredictWind Direction - 5 day Tasman Island 27 December 2008 Rolex Sydney Hobart Race - PredictWind.com

PredictWind.comsoftwareand forecasting service was developed by Alinghi weatherman and top youth and Olympic sailor, Jon Bilger. Come January 2009, the service we have all been using for free will switch to a subscription only service. While we are used to getting everything for free on the internet PredictWind does give you significant benefits whether it a racing sailors who wants to plan a regatta or race, or a cruising sailor looking for the peace of mind that a five day forecast can bring. Get your subscription now at PredictWind.com

by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World

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