Gladwell's Line: Will terrorists come to the 33rd America's Cup?

11:26 AM Wed 5 Aug 2009 GMT

'Ras al-Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates, is close to Iranian waters. The 20nm America’s Cup windward leeward course is shown to scale.' Google Earth Click Here to view large photo

The car bombing on the Spanish island of Mallorca, a very popular sailing venue, staged just before the start of the 28th Copa del Rey Audi Sailing Cup, has bought the topics of terrorism and sailing into sharp relief

Those who dusted off their atlases to find out the location of Ras al-Khaimah, in the United Arab Emirates, the proposed venue for the 33rd America's Cup, will have been a little taken aback to see that the racing will be staged within about 30nm of the Iranian coast.

Iran is a country which does not enjoy good diplomatic relations with too many countries, and the Challenging nation, USA, in particular, and with the exceptional of Defender, Switzerland.

Many will question the wisdom and sensitivity of staging an America's Cup so close to the shores of a nation that was close to being invaded by the USA in the reign of the last President.

The complete lack of consultation with the Challenger, on security issues implicit in the venue will not sit comfortably with many, and while playing hard and fast with America's Cup rules is an accepted part of the game, putting the security of sailors at risk is always completely unacceptable.

A look at the Travel Advisory posted by the Australian government for the area would not give the US team too much comfort - particularly with a three to four month run up to the 33rd America's Cup, scheduled for February 2010.

In part, the Australian advisory reads: 'We advise you to exercise a high degree of caution in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) because of the high threat of terrorist attack. Pay close attention to your personal security at all times and monitor the media for information about possible new safety or security risks.

'Statements by international terrorist groups have called for attacks against Western interests in the Gulf region. These include references to residential compounds, military, oil, transport and aviation interests. We continue to receive reports that terrorists are planning attacks against Western interests in the UAE and the wider Gulf region.

'The terrorist organisation al-Qaeda continues to publicly threaten to attack Westerners in the Arabian Peninsula. Terrorists have attacked Westerners in this region. Further attacks against targets in the Arabian Peninsula, including the UAE, cannot be ruled out.

'The UAE has a low incidence of crime. Petty crime, including pick pocketing and bag snatching, is rare. '

So what is the real risk with a high profile US Challenger sailing in the Persian Gulf both in the work up phase and the America's Cup itself?

Dr Paul Buchanan -

Sail-World turned to Dr Paul Buchanan a frequent NZ media commentator on terrorism and a well regarded international security analyst, who is currently a Visiting Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore

'I think that the travel advisory is fair warning,' says Dr Buchanan. 'It concurs with my view that an attack, should it happen, will happen on land rather than at sea and be led by Jihadists rather than Iran. Just remember that there will be added layers of security brought into the mix once the Cup venue is announced, which will mitigate against a successful attack.'

Touching on the security and terrorist threats in the area, Dr Buchanan commented. 'The UAE is a relatively safe destination and will have its security forces deployed for the event. The major threats are the smuggling of arms to the Iraq conflict zone and Iranian-US tensions. The risk of terrorism, while never to be discounted, is relatively low in the Gulf simply because of the presence of a flotilla of Western warships undertaking maritime interdiction duties (including, until recently, a NZ frigate) and the anti-terrorist focus of all security forces in the region (even more so than the usual inter-state conflict orientation that is the traditional military/security concern).

'Therefore the terrorist threat is less than in the Horn of Africa, particularly at sea', he concluded.

As mentioned the proposed venue of Ras al-Khaimah is very close to Iran, a nation which comes under considerable political heat from the West, and USA in particular. We asked Dr Buchanan whether adequate security can be assured by organisers/local authorities, if for instance, was an attack mounted by fast boat from Iran or other places in the Persian Gulf, and given the warnings from the Australian Government about continued threats from the terrorist organisation al-Qaeda to attack Westerners in the Arabian Peninsula?

'The Iranians would have no real interest in disrupting the event. Not only are their relations with the UAE cordial, but it would invite further international sanctions and a possible military response,' Dr Buchanan replied.

'Of course, it could be the case that the Revolutionary Guard would try to stage a provocation in order to divert domestic attention in Iran away from the divisive election results and ensuing discontent. But that will be countered by heightened US and allied concern about such an incident and the preventative measures undertaken to forestall it.

'I foresee a layered line of gray hulls (warships) in the international corridor between Iranian and UAE territorial waters focused on deterring fast boat or inflatable attacks at numerous points in their trajectory. There will also be ample air cover to that effect, since the US regularly rotates carrier task forces in the Gulf (which means that the Task Force will have Cup protection as one of its duties).

'Attacks staged from other areas will be countered in the same way. The real issue to me is that with so many military assets detailed to secondary/perimeter Cup protection duties, Jihadists may stage an attack on regional targets left relatively unguarded. But even that is a remote possibility because I am sure that once the venue is formally announced military planners will swing into action to prepare contingency operations for a variety of threats.

Turning to the issue of land-based threats and the general degree of security or lawlessness in the area, Dr Buchanan said he believed the major problem was with smuggling along with piracy. Adding that the biggest problem for security will be corruption.

The island at the Al Hamra Village, Ras al-Khaimah, UAE - the most attractive target for an attack - Copyright &copy _- Alinghi Click Here to view large photo

'It is possible that UAE or other security officials in the region could be bribed to look the other way when a terrorist unit deploys towards or pre-positions weapons in the UAE. My semi-informed opinion is that the biggest threat could well be on land rather than at sea - an attack on the America's Cup 'Village' would be of far more value to Islamicists than sinking one boat. Yet here again, I am sure that security planners will be hard at work gaming out all such possibilities and deploying their security forces accordingly.'

Given the proximity of the waters of seven states of the United Arab Emirates to the Iranian territorial waters, and the requirement under the Deed of Gift for the windward leeward course of '20 nautical miles to windward and return' the vexed issue of straying, or being perceived to be straying inside the 12 mile limit.

'Iranian waters are separated from UAE waters by a maritime corridor heavily patrolled by Western warships', Dr Buchanan explained. 'Given the amount of traffic in that corridor and Iranian sensitivities, I would advise against even thinking about crossing into Iranian waters unless very explicit and public negotiations are undertaken with the Iranian authorities to that end, which might be a great PR move if the Iranians agree. But even that move may not guarantee Republican Guard agreement or cooperation.'

In the eyes of many Westerners, and with the increasing level of piracy around the sailing world, couldn't the high profile target of a large America's Cup yacht, flying the American flag, owned by one of the richest men in the world be just a little too obvious, as she cantered around just off the Iranian coast?

Dr Buchanan downplays the perceived Iranian threat and temptation of such a 'high worth' target.

'Let me first say that the Iranians probably have little or no interest in the competition or Mr. Ellison. He may be a big cheese in the computer industry and racing circles, but 99.9% of Iranians will not have heard of him (as is true for the Muslim world), and therefore an attack on him or his boat would be hard to sell on Iranian national security grounds.

'Nor would the Iranians be able to justify using a proxy such as Hezbollah to attack the CUP since their connections are too obvious. To this can be added the fact that Iran does have diplomatic relations with the Swiss, who undoubtedly would look unfavourably on the disruption of a event of which they are very proud.

'Swiss concern would feed European responses, which would be universally negative. Thus, from a cost/benefit standpoint, the Iranians would have little incentive to disrupt the Cup.

'As for Islamicists, although the Cup is a marvelous event and important to the sailing community, it does not carry the same weight as soccer in terms of international appeal (especially in the Muslim world) and therefore is not as high profile in Muslim's consciousness as it is in the West.

'They could target Mr. Ellison for being Jewish, but even then the PR value of the strike would be outweighed by the negative repercussions it would entail. Can a suicide fast boat attack staged from a failed state or in connivance with Islamicist sympathizers in the UAE or neighbouring states be entirely discounted? No. But given the probable security measures erected and the internal logics at play in Iran and the al-Qaeda network, the America's Cup is an event not worth targeting.

'Finally, by way of general observation. The more the Cup organisers work with international security forces in advance, the less likely there will be any problem. In fact, my impression is that the major issue will be some unusual climatological event that adds an element of uncertainty to the shallow seas/light wind scenario that Alinghi is apparently looking for. I do not think the Iranians or Jihadists are quite up to engineering that!

'Nothing of what I have said is polemical or, for that matter, very insightful. It just summarises what is currently known in security circles. Virtually any port in Europe could be targeted as much as the UAE, so it is a moot point as to which is safer', he concludes.

Reverting to the Majorca bombing, last week, which was done by the Basque separatist group ETA, Dr Buchanan points out that it is widely acknowledged in counter-terrorism circles that the biggest threat of terrorism is in Europe (which is the primary al-Qaeda focus and which has cells already in place), followed by Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.

And where would Dr Buchanan stage the 33rd America's Cup from a sailor safety and the perspective of low terrorist risk?

'To be honest, if I had a say I would have suggested staging the event in South America (since it is summer there in January) including Rio (Guanabara Bay has a breeze but is not too choppy, and there are plenty of other sailing locations in Brazil),' he says.

'Punta del Este in Uruguay (an amazing resort town that sits on a peninsula that separates the Atlantic Ocean from a huge bay), and perhaps even Buenos Aires (although brackish the River Plate is huge and has both swells and wind, although less so in summer).

'Most importantly, given our conversation, there has been no Islamic terrorist attacks in Latin America since 1994 and the region is considered to be one of the safest parts of the world when it comes to the threat of Islamic terrorism.

'Plus the areas I mention above are sailing crazy so the crowds would flock to the event!'

by Richard Gladwell