Airlie Beach Race Week Weather Day 2- Another Day in Paradise

9:50 PM Fri 14 Aug 2009 GMT

'Saturday 15th August 2009' Bureau of Meteorology

Synoptic Discussion:

Today can be summed up as yet 'another day in paradise'.

A weak trough of low pressure (not shown on the above analysis) is currently entering the region from the south. It's expected in the Airlie Beach area at around 9am this morning. Behind this trough is a ridge of high pressure. This ridge is expected to produce moderate SE winds for your racing today.

Observations:

At 0630hr surface winds over the Airlie Beach area were out of the WNW averaging around 3-6kn (land breeze) and the temperature was around 12-14 deg. At Hamilton Island the wind was NNW'ly at 11kn gusting 13kn, (temp 20C, pressure 1017hPa) indicative of the synoptic flow aided by some topographic forcing.

Forecast Winds for Middle of Pioneer Bay (Read Discussion below)

1000:MD150 DR(130-180) MS10 SR08-15kn

1200:MD130 DR(110-160) MS12 SR09-17kn

1400:MD120 DR(110-140) MS13 SR09-18kn

1600:MD120 DR(100-140) MS14 SR10-19kn

1800:MD130 DR(110-160) MS12 SR08-18kn

Note 1: First column is mean wind direction in deg Magnetic (MD). It is the 10min average (mean) value at a height of 10m above the water leading up to the hour quoted. The second column is the directional range (DR) of the wind direction in deg Mag. This takes into account the natural oscillation of the wind and is a function of the atmospheric stability, etc. The third column is the mean speed (MS) in knots (kn) and is the average 10min value leading up to the hour quoted at a height of 10m above the water. The last column is the wind speed range (SR) in knots and is the lowest wind speed to highest wind speed in the 10min leading up to forecast hour.

Discussion

More certainty today, however the wind speed is expected to be the issue - just how strong will the wind be? I've gone for the middle of the road in the forecast above for the middle of Pioneer Bay.

The trough is expected to move through the Whitsunday area this morning. The SE wind is expected to freshen during the day to peak at average speeds of around 12-14kn. The speed will be some 2-5kn stronger at times in the Passage and the Channel and the direction should be 15-30deg more right compared to those forecast above in Pioneer Bay.

Wind will be lighter in lee of any landmass and briefly stronger and gusty ('Bullets') due to convergence around some headlands.

Natural oscillations today around 15 to 25 deg away from effects of topography, tending around 30 to 50 deg closer to the effects of any land mass.

Weather

Remaining dry. Take plenty of sunscreen and warm clothes in case? Chance of a shower well offshore?

Maximum land temperature at Airlie Beach: 25 degrees. Sea Temperature: about 22 degrees.

Wind Waves:

0.5 to 1.5metres, less in lee of land, more when wind wave opposes tidal current.
(Wave heights quoted are Significant wave heights).

Current: A good flood this afternoon. Be very careful particularly in the Channels, etc.

Remember: Tide floods to the south and ebbs to the north in the Whitsundays.
Tide at Shute Harbour: Low of 0.72m at 1158hr and High of 3.30 at 1857hr.

Outlook

Sunday: Dry with W-SW winds 4-8 knots early, shifting SE-NE at 8-14 knots during day.

by Kenn Batt

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Airlie Beach Race Week Weather Day 2- Another Day in Paradise

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